Mortgage market update | July 2026

This month's update is a little later than planned. Between holidays and a busy few weeks, time got away from me. Hopefully it's still worth the wait!

I've had a few people asking the same questions over the last couple of weeks. Where are interest rates going? What does the new Prime Minister mean for the housing market? And how does everything happening in the Middle East affect mortgages?

Let's take a look.

A New Prime Minister... What Does It Mean?

With a new Prime Minister comes plenty of speculation.

I've already had a few conversations with clients asking whether we'll see changes to Stamp Duty, planning rules or housing policy. The honest answer is that, now, we simply don't know.

There are plenty of ideas being discussed, but until policies are announced and put into action, there's nothing buyers or homeowners need to react to.

It's always tempting to make decisions based on what might happen, but I've found it's usually better to focus on what's in front of us rather than trying to second-guess politics.

The Question Everyone's Asking

Without doubt, the question I've been asked most this month is:

"Where do you think interest rates are going?"

The honest answer is... I don't know.

Nobody knows for certain. We can look at what the financial markets are expecting today, and at the moment they're pricing in the possibility of rates staying a little higher in the short term. But expectations can change quickly, as we've seen several times over the last few years.

When someone asks me whether they should fix now or wait, I don't start by talking about interest rates.

I start by talking about them.

What are your plans over the next couple of years? Are you hoping to move? Is your family situation likely to change? Would you prefer the certainty of knowing exactly what your payments will be, or are you comfortable taking a bit more risk?

There isn't one right answer for everyone, which is why advice should always start with your circumstances rather than trying to predict the next move in the market.

What I’m seeing

One thing I have noticed recently is that some sellers are having to become a little more realistic.

I've spoken to a few people over the last month who've reduced their asking price to a figure they never thought they'd accept. Properties are taking a little longer to sell and buyers seem to have more choice than they did a year or two ago.

That's obviously frustrating if you're selling.

If you're buying, though, it could create opportunities.

I'm not talking about making silly offers for the sake of it, but if you've done your homework, know what similar properties have sold for and understand the seller's position, there's a much better chance of negotiating than there has been for quite some time.

Lender update

One change you may not have noticed is Halifax beginning its move under the Lloyds brand. Halifax has been one of the UK's biggest mortgage lenders for years, so it feels like the end of an era in many ways.

It's certainly been a positive start, with Lloyds offering some very competitive products for eligible Premier Banking customers. It'll be interesting to see what the next few months bring and whether we see much change beyond the name.

My Final Thought

If the last few months have taught us anything, it's that there's always another headline around the corner.

A new Prime Minister. Events in the Middle East. Interest rates. Inflation.

It's easy to get caught up trying to work out what's going to happen next.

The reality is that the best financial decisions are rarely made by predicting the future. They're made by understanding your own circumstances, knowing what you can comfortably afford, and choosing the option that's right for you and your family.

If you're wondering what any of this means for your own plans, whether you're buying, moving or re-mortgaging, I'm always happy to have a chat.

Risk warnings

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage